Wow!

Wow!!! What an amazing and strange time we’ve had over the past few weeks.  The NASDAQ is close to its pre-coronavirus high; the trend is upward.  The DOW and SP500 are experiencing heavy buying. Given the current political state of America, what impact will we see from the riots and continued coronavirus fallout on the economy, thus the markets? 

Hard to say.  Most of the riots are occurring in blue cities but are alienating voters in red states and cities.  From an electoral perspective I call it a wash.  So I would expect Trump to win in November and a continuation of the economic policies that the markets like.  Yet the election will be won based on turnout, so if Biden can turn out the Democratic base in purple states (which are also being alienated by the riots) he could still win.  Though not likely in my opinion.

As for the coronavirus,  it appears that the pandemic is subsiding in North America and Europe so we can expect the economies in these areas to return to normal in the next few months.  Oil production in the USA is beginning to pick up in anticipation of increased demand. The better than expected employment number reported on 6/5/2020 suggests that we may in fact have a V-ish shaped rebound in the economy. 

So all back to normal by Q4 2020?  It looks like that will be the case.

Update: The employment numbers reported on 6/5/2020 contained errors making the value lower than expected.